About the Research.

In this paper, we used a range of different methods to quantify the economic and social potential of AI for Japan:

  • We created a new set of economic models, exploring the potential of AI for labour productivity and business efficiency across the economy.
  • We ran new representative polling of 1,025 online adults in Japan. Fieldwork for this study took place between 14th February – 27th February 2025. Results quoted here are weighted by age group, gender, region, and education level to nationally representative proportions. While we undertook our best efforts to make the sample as representative as possible with extensive attention checks and neutral question design, all polling is subject to the potential for response bias and our sample does not include non-online adults.

You can access our detailed methodology here.

You can access the appendix of additional datapoints not included in this report here.

This report has been prepared by Public First for Google. All information in this report is derived or estimated by Public First analysis using both non-Google proprietary and publicly available information. Google has not supplied any additional data, nor does it endorse any estimates made in the report. Where information has been obtained from third-party sources and proprietary research, this is clearly referenced in the endnotes.

With the exception of desktop researched claims which have been footnoted, all claims in the report have been derived based on Public First modelling. All calculations were done in USD, and have been converted to JPY based on the average exchange rate in 2025 of 1 USD = 152 JPY, obtained from OFX. All estimates in this report are expressed in JPY and are based on the latest available data as of time of analysis in 2025.

This report has been prepared solely for information purposes over a limited period of time to provide a perspective on the market. It is not intended for investment purposes. Projected market and financial information, analyses, and conclusions contained in this report should not be construed as definitive forecasts or guarantees of future performance or results.

Google, Public First and their respective affiliates, or any other third party involved make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of the information in the report and, to the extent permitted by law, shall not be liable for any loss arising from the use of this report.

Public First is a global strategic consultancy that works with organisations around the world to better understand public opinion, analyse economic trends and craft new policy proposals. For more information, please visit our website.

Endnotes.

  1. AI is a set of technologies that enable computers to perform a variety of advanced functions. These include the ability to reason, learn, and act in such a way that would normally require human intelligence. This might include understanding and translating spoken and written language, analysing data, making recommendations and more. 
  2. Colacelli and Hong, 2019, IMF Working Paper, ‘Productivity drag from small and medium-sized enterprises in Japan’. 
  3. OIWA Hiroyuki (Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry), ‘Growth factors of digital investment-Addressing the Japan-US productivity gap in the AI era’, July 2025. 
  7. Office for National Statistics and OECD data, ‘International comparisons of productivity’. 
  8. ‘Productivity Statistics’, Japan Productivity Center, March, 2025. 
  10. Augmented occupations are those who are likely to see their productivity at work significantly boosted by AI, but unlikely to see an overall fall in labour demand. Whereas displaced occupations are those where AI could take on a significant proportion of tasks, and some workers within them are likely to require support with career transition. 
  11. Defined as having the largest share of the population aged 65 and above. 
  14. Tokyo Statistical Yearbook 2023, Official Statistics of Tokyo. 
  17. ‘International Health Care System Profiles’, Commonwealth Fund, June, 2020. 
  18. ‘Life Expectancy by Country’, World Population Review, 2025. 
  28. ‘Overcoming Japan’s Uphill Battle Toward Digital Transformation’, The Center for Innovation, Trade, and Strategy, March, 2023. 
  29. ESRI Quarterly National Accounts, ‘Value Added by Economic Activity’ (2024 Q4). 
  32. ‘Anime Industry Data’, The Association of Japanese Animations, March, 2024. 
  35. ‘Cybersecurity Profile 2025: Japan’, The Henry M. Jackson School of International Studies, April, 2025. 
  36. ‘NCSI Ranking’, NCSI, September, 2023. 
  41. ibid. 
  42. Broekaert, L, ‘Digital transformation in Japan’, EU-Japan Centre for Industrial Cooperation, February 2022. 
  43. Mariana Colacelli, and Gee Hee Hong. ‘Productivity Drag from Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises in Japan’, IMF Working Papers 2019, 137 (2019), accessed July 27, 2025.